Tuesday, August 9, 2016

South Africa's local elections 2016: more questions than answers


After the 2016 local election results, John Kane-Berman claimed, 'The spell is broken.'* As the country speculated frantically about the makeup of future coalition governments that at least was certain: the charm of the ANC as South Africa's party of liberation will not work its magic in future - if, indeed, it worked in these elections.

The question, however, is whether the mould is broken, a whole generation's ingrained habit of voting ANC that can be handed down for a couple of generations more. We must wait for the results of SA's national elections in 2019 to know the answer to that.

And here are a few of many more questions to ponder before then.

1. The ANC has received not a defeat but a powerful wake-up call. Will the party learn from it as Cyril Ramaphosa was promising at the Independent Electoral Commission yesterday and stage a big comeback, or will it slide further among division and faction fighting? How much will that be affected by continuing to keep President Zuma in office, or starting now, rather than next year, to grasp the nettle of finding a unity successor who will also make a sound president?

2. The DA has received a remarkable boost from the voters. Will DA membership and the party’s future chances accelerate now and build faster than in the past, as more people think about what has happened and see that the change they were told was impossible, is possible? The ANC does not have to rule till Jesus comes again, as prophesied. Voting can change that.

3. The election has been like no other and an outstanding success for SA's young democracy, for due process and law and order. Even if the EFF continues to enjoy the media's support as it has so far, it has not out-performed in these elections. Will a ‘revolutionary’ party have any future in a strengthening constitutional state? Can the EFF change its platform without destroying itself? What are the political consequences of the EFF's fall, if it should happen?

4. Have we seen the end of dozens of tiny parties and a real move in the direction of a two-party democracy: government and opposition?

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